Thanks, but this is a forecast which does not tell about days ahead
For an accurate forecast for the end of August, you'd have to search here, Impossiblepredictions.com !
Five myths about the Northern Lights, debunked
Why the Aurora is awesome in summer
i was hoping to rely on something called statistics
I've never been to Yellowknife, but follow the Aurorae quite closely, and have never seen any statistics personally for any where. Other than over a short term, they are impossible to predict.
Aurorae come from the Sun, mainly from sunspots. Right now, the Sun is completely bare and so there will be no sunspot driven aurorae over the next 4-10 days, they take several days to get here.
The Sun is well past its maximum, a few years ago, and therefore activity will continue to decrease.
There can also be aurorae from 'Coronal Holes' but these are even more difficult to predict.
This site may help www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthAmerica
Researchers have also discovered that auroral activity is cyclic, peaking roughly every 11 years. The next peak period is 2024. northernlightscentre.ca/northernlights.html
5 Things No One Ever Tells You About Northern Lights #Aurora #Borealis @jdomb's Travels http://ow.ly/pJYth “… 2. The Northern Lights are unpredictable.
In order to see the Northern Lights, you need a dark, clear night. They are visible from late September to March anywhere from 6pm to 6am. There also needs to be solar flares on the sun or solar wind; the Aurora Borealis happens when particles from the sun enter Earth’s atmosphere and collide violently with gas atoms. There are Aurora forecasts and we even use the Aurora Forecast app for iPhone that will predict the aurora activity level. But the fact is, the Northern Lights are unpredictable. We’ve had clear nights when the Aurora forecast showed level 4 (high) activity and we didn’t see anything. The Aurora forecast said level 0 (no activity) on January 4, 2013 when we saw them. …”